Govinda R Timilsina博士特別講演「Does Biofuel Reduce GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector? Some Insights from Global Economic Modeling?」
【Govinda R Timilsina博士特別講演のお知らせ(6/29)】
・講演者：Govinda R Timilsina博士（世界銀行シニアリサーチエコノミスト）
・講演タイトル：Does Biofuel Reduce GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector?
Some Insights from Global Economic Modeling?（バイオ燃料は交通部門からの地球温暖化ガス排出量を減少させるのか？：世界経済モデルからの知見）
About the speaker:
Dr. Timilsina joined the Development Research Group of the World Bank in May 2007. He has more than 18 years experience across a board range of energy and climate change economics at the international level. His key expertise includes general equilibrium and input-output modeling; biofuels, energy efficiency, clean and renewable energy economics and policies, carbon market, UNFCC and the Kyoto Protocol; climate change science, impacts and mitigation; energy sector modeling, electricity economics & planning and urban transportation. Prior to joining the Bank, Dr. Timilsina was a Senior Research Director at the Canadian Energy Research Institute, Calgary, Canada, where he was engaged mainly on climate change policy analysis, economic impacts assessment and electricity issues. Dr. Timilsina served as a member of a number of UN climate change panels/teams, such as, the Small-Scale CDM Panel and the Registration and Issuance Team. At the Bank, he is working on clean energy and climate change research, and currently leading and contributing to a number of studies including the economic, social and environmental impacts of biofuels, low carbon economic growth in developing countries, transaction costs of energy efficiency and the economics and policies of renewable energy.
The primary reason for promoting biofuels in most developed countries is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector as this sector has very limited options compared to other economic sectors for this purpose. A partial equilibrium analysis carried out for the transport sector without accounting for inter-linkages of economic sectors and agents, and international trade for goods and services will conclude that biofuels, indeed, reduce GHG emissions. However, a global general equilibrium analysis that accounts for international trade and inter-linkages between various economic sectors does not necessarily conclude the same at least for the short-run. This is because a large-scale production of biofuels for substituting petroleum consumption in the transport sector and subsequently reducing GHG emissions in the industrialized countries might increase deforestation in developing countries and could emit more GHG emissions.
Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly represents land-use changes, we show that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks, it would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in some countries. Land areas, currently used for non-biofuel feedstock crops, such as rice, vegetable and fruits would be diverted towards biofuel feedstock crops, such as sugar cane, corn and oil seeds. If both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this ould cause a net increase of GHG emissions for more than two decades after meeting these mandates and targets. However, if the use of forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands released through intensification of livestock production, the biofuels mandates and targets would cause reduction of GHG emissions starting from 2021, a year after the assumed full implementation of the mandates and targets.